Programming paradigm shifts were rather evident on TIOBE during the past year, Objective-C moved from an 8th position into the top 5 programming languages and C# nearly overtook C++. I expect within a few more months the C# platform will move into the third position right behind Java and C, and of course Objective-C will continue to grow. What’s in store for 2012?

1. Microsoft Releases Software. There are a number of platform shifts underway, which is making it difficult for Microsoft to maintain a virtual monopoly on the PC desktop. In the new year, expect to see more apps for iOS and even Android from Microsoft, this will likely include a full Office offering that runs on your iPad. Microsoft may position their developer tools – including Visual Studio – for additional platforms including OS X and iOS development. Opportunities abound if Microsoft can return to its roots and focus on building great software and development tools without being locked to the Windows operating system.
2. Streaming Internet TV. This is going to be an emerging trend as consumers vent frustration with the complexities of cable providers like Comcast. The switch to digital cable has required subscribers to attach set-top boxes to their TV’s which invariably makes the entire configuration difficult for a PVR. Services like Hulu and Netflix continue to erode the market share of cable subscribers, and consumers will increasingly rely on online streaming for their television viewing. The key here is services that already integrate with your PVR (Netflix, Hulu and Amazon) are nearly universally available, and there is an opportunity for streaming TV providers to rebroadcast television over the Internet in much the same way as Comcast sends it to your home on cable. This paradigm shift will begin to disrupt cable TV providers in much the same way as VoIP rattled the land-line telephone industry.
3. Solid State Standard. SSD (Solid State Drives) have permeated the PC industry, and there are now a number of popular laptops that only ship with SSD. Expect this trend to continue and the popular MacBook Pro will get an update next year to have it ship with an SSD by default. As a bonus, MacBook Pro owners will have the option to also drop a 1TB hard drive into the unit so they can run the core operating system from the SSD and use the storage capacity of the larger hard drive. Dell and Toshiba will also revamp their model lineup to include an SSD in popular entry-level units as the default drive; for example, the Dell Inspiron and the Toshiba Satellite models.
4. Nokia Bankcruptcy. The popular cell-phone maker continues to lose market share, and the Lumia isn’t exactly going to turn the tide for them. While they continue to secretly work on Symbian in case the whole Windows Phone 7 thing doesn’t pan out, it’s pretty clear they have been left behind in the smart-phone market. It’s likely that a company such as HTC will acquire the Nokia name and use it for marketing purposes.
5. Google Acquires T-Mobile. They have Android and Motorola for headset hardware, the only thing remaining for Google is a cell phone carrier for their phone. The T-Mobile/AT&T merger has fallen through the cracks, which leaves T-Mobile ripe for an acquisition. With a complete solution like this, Google would be able to offer something that Apple cannot – a full service solution at a price point that Google can set.

The tablet computing market has emerged as a viable platform primarily as a result of Apple’s iPad gaining wide acceptance. Google and Microsoft are trying to get a corner of this market, and while it remains to be seen it seems likely that both Android and Windows 8 will end up playing a key role in the evolution of tablet computing as year unfolds. We should expect to see continued growth in the tablet market, and while opportunities abound it’s certainly going to be Apple that continues to dominate.

By the fall of next year, Apple will be openly discussing their television platform which will likely be a combination of a subscription service and a unique amalgam of technology that may include both a set-top box and a standard TV set. Microsoft will lament Windows Media Center and may try to re-market WMC on Apple’s coattails, but it’s unlikely to have any impact. Needless to say, 3D televisions will be out of vogue almost before the new year begins and the rest of the 3D market (cell phones, cameras, etc.) will dwindle as the year progresses.

Finally, Lytro will introduce a camera that you can actually use – 6 megapixels – but with 3D falling out of favor and the tricky proprietary software it may end up being too little too late. Whatever happens it will continue to be a wild ride and as always the most amazing stuff isn’t even on the technology radar yet.

Solid State Drives (SSD) made significant inroads this past year, every major computer vendor offers an SSD option on a new machine and in many cases this is the only drive type. While drives have not yet hit $1 per gigabyte, they are hovering at these levels and there are some tremendous offers available for drives that are now on sale.

Large storage hard drives made improvements in capacity as well, with 3TB now available and 2TB drives commonly sold at a very reasonable cost. It looks like Hitachi has reached 4TB capacity in their Travelstar series of drives, so this will be something to anticipate in the new year.

Clearly Netflix has all but won the HD streaming market, with nearly all major electronics vendors shipping systems that are Netflix ready. Google is attempting to compete in this market, but they have their work cut out for them. Meanwhile, cloud computing hasn’t really taken off with even the most aggressive estimates putting it at maybe 2% of the typical IT budget. This trend should continue in the new year, IT organizations will continue to revisit how they outsource cloud data and will more than likely absorb the fractional cost of bringing these services back in-house.

Finally, Apple was clearly able to deliver on a tablet computing device and will continue to acquire market share with their visionary iPad. Google is somewhat conflicted in this space, but realistically we should anticipate the demand gravitating towards the iPad for the foreseeable future.

So what does this leave for 2011?

1. Programming Paradigm Shifts. While C and Java have remained the most popular languages for quite some time now, both Objective-C and C# have been whittling away at this over the past few years. In this new year, I think we’ll find C# replacing C++ and Objective-C bubbling into the top 5 languages on TIOBE. The popularity of Apple devices and the arrival of Windows Phone 7 will help drive this, and of course the concern developers have with Java now that Oracle is controlling things will further erode market share.
2. Applecessories. Everybody will be buying accessories for Apple devices (iPod, iPhone and iPad). The popularity of induction chargers certainly drives some of this, but with the advent of AirPlay many consumers will be looking for ways to connect their portable devices to home stereo and TV systems. This should also translate to the enterprise, where it will become possible to run a presentation from your iPhone wirelessly over an AirPlay connection to a projector.
3. Microsoft Acquires Blackberry. If Microsoft is going to continue competing in the smart-phone space, they will need to acquire at least one of the existing market leaders. The acquisition of Blackberry would give Microsoft at least a 15% share of the mobile phone market, this would also give them an opportunity to integrate BES with the Exchange server product directly.
4. Google Acquires Netflix. The GoogleTV platform is in its infancy; but realistically Google is going to need a streaming movie provider to power this device as the content on YouTube just isn’t going to be enough. Simply buy the market leader and Google will have exposure to the Netflix streaming service on all GoogleTV appliances.

Of course the other big story will continue to be tablet computing devices, with Apple iPad devouring the greatest market share and Android powered devices just starting to make inroads. The era of netbook computing is fading as consumers discover tablet computers can offer many of the same capabilities with larger screens and longer battery life.

If Microsoft doesn’t acquire a market leader like Blackberry, the Windows Phone 7 platform will be the last version of the Windows mobile platform. They have certainly left the door open for this kind of maneuver, the Phone 7 platform will be marketed at consumers which leaves them an opportunity for a different enterprise solution.

As for Google and Netflix, if Google doesn’t join with a market leader the Google TV will wither and may in fact disappear from store shelves before spring. Google will also need to revitalize their Android platform before the end of next year in an effort to gain platform parity across the many kinds of devices out there, in the process of doing this Google must eliminate Chrome OS.

While there are plenty of ideas out there, as a regular Starbucks customer myself here are a few things they could do that would help keep me as a happy customer:

1. Free WiFi. Sure, I’ve got an account with my Starbucks card and can connect – but by the time I type all my login information there just isn’t enough time to use it. Give me a free wireless access point and let me get online. I don’t mind having a limit (30 minutes) but I do mind having to navigate the laundry list of wireless access “providers”.
2. Coffee for Keurig. I’ve tried VIA and it’s not my cup of joe, I’m assuming if you can make reasonably good Starbucks flavored coffee from an instant pack you might be able to do a decent job on a really good coffee machine.
3. Drop the Pike Place campaign. This might have already happened, but if not then it’s way overdue. Let the local Starbucks shops figure out what they want to serve in the afternoon rather than require them to brew a specific blend. This is part of the local appeal and might actually get me to make a visit again after lunch.
4. Forget about Target. It’s impossible to plan a 7AM coffee run to a local Starbucks, there are too many of them co-located in Target and Barnes & Noble.
5. Forget about locally branded shops. The idea of a stealth coffee shop is ridiculous, this is akin to Pontiac competing with Chevrolet and we all know how that ended up.
6. Improve the pastry selection. Having an egg and cheese sandwich is an interesting idea, but maybe fixing the quality of the existing pastry selection would be better one. Honestly, I’ll grab my scone from Fresh Market or Panera before even considering the purchase of one at Starbucks. Get together with a local bakery and start providing quality breakfast items.

The pastry issue is probably the biggest problem, if I’m hungry at all then a stop at Panera or Dunkin Donuts is going to give me a better selection. This also means that I am more inclined to buy a cup of coffee at one of these establishments, which will take away from what could have been business for Starbucks.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not about to stop my local treks to Starbucks just because I’m not getting my free WiFi and the scones taste questionable. The coffee there is still quite good and extremely consistent, it’s perfectly alright to branch out into new directions but in the end you need to remain true to your core business and of course keep your customers happy.